El Niño and Its Impact on Agriculture: What It Means for Crops and Farmers

What Is El Niño?

Thousands of kilometres away, El Niño is warming the Pacific Ocean, yet its effects are being felt much closer to home — on farms, crops, and the livelihoods of millions of farmers.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It can influence India’s monsoon rainfall, temperatures and water availability, although the impact varies across regions.

The latest data shows the temperature rise at the heart of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has now reached 3.05°C — higher than the 3.02°C recorded in late November 2015 — which is why the current event is being referred to as a “Godzilla El Niño”.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño is expected to persist until February 2027, peaking in December 2026, increasing the chance of dry weather and high temperatures in India until February 2027.

Why Should Agriculture Care About El Niño?

India’s dependence on the southwest monsoon makes El Niño particularly important for agriculture. Rainfall influences kharif sowing, crop growth, and groundwater replenishment. A weak or uneven monsoon can delay sowing, reduce soil moisture, and increase dependence on irrigation.

These conditions can put pressure on crop yields, particularly in rain-fed regions. Lower reservoir levels and higher temperatures can further increase the challenges farmers face.

According to IMD, India received its lowest June–September rainfall in more than a decade — the 13th driest since 1901. Reservoirs were 28% short of full capacity by the end of September, and several parts of key farm states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana are facing near drought-like conditions.

Impact on Agricultural and Spice Commodities

One of the major concerns associated with El Niño is the possibility of reduced or uneven monsoon rainfall. Delayed rains can affect sowing schedules, while prolonged dry spells reduce soil moisture and create unfavourable conditions that ultimately affect crop development.

Spices are also worth monitoring:

• Red chilli — weather conditions can influence crop development, yield and drying quality.
• Turmeric and ginger — both require adequate soil moisture for rhizome development.
• Cumin and coriander — can be affected by unfavourable temperature and moisture conditions during their growing season.

Any production loss in major growing regions can affect market arrivals and influence prices. However, the actual impact will depend on crop conditions, existing stocks, demand and production in other regions.

How Can We Be Prepared?

Farmers can reduce weather-related risks by following local weather advisories, choosing suitable crop varieties, conserving soil moisture and using available water efficiently. For agribusinesses and traders, monitoring crop conditions, acreage, market arrivals and inventory levels can help identify potential supply disruptions early.

El Niño does not automatically mean a poor harvest or higher commodity prices. Its impact depends on regional weather conditions, crop performance, and market demand. Keeping a close watch on these factors will be essential to understanding its implications for Indian agriculture and the spice trade in the coming months.